The Agricultural Supply Chain Independence Act

ACT 2: The Agricultural Supply Chain Independence Act (ASCIA)#

Food Sovereignty: Eliminating Dependency on Foreign Fertilizer and Volatile Input Markets

The Strategic Vulnerability:

When the Ukraine war spiked global fertilizer prices by 300%+ in 2022-2023, conventional farmers saw profit margins wiped out. Many went into debt or abandoned farming. The United States imports 85% of its potash fertilizer and 40% of its nitrogen fertilizer—dependency on hostile or unstable suppliers (Russia, Belarus, China).

Tanzania data proves regenerative agriculture is not aspirational—it is economically superior: $526 net profit/acre vs $176 for conventional (198% increase), achieved through 60-80% reduction in synthetic inputs.

This is not a farm subsidy bill. This is strategic resource independence legislation.

Legislative Framework: Decoupling Food Production from Global Input Supply Chains#

GOAL: Transition 30% of US agricultural acreage (300+ million acres) to regenerative practices by 2033, eliminating $20+ billion in annual fertilizer imports and creating drought-resilient food security.

PRIMARY MECHANISM: $30 billion in transition financing covering the “risk gap” during Years 1-3 when yields may dip 5-15% before soil health recovery delivers superior economics.

IMPLEMENTATION STRUCTURE:

Tier 1: Transition Risk Insurance (Years 1-3)

Coverage: 90% of baseline revenue guarantee for farmers transitioning to conservation agriculture
Eligibility: Minimum 3-year commitment to no-till, cover cropping, crop rotation
Payment Structure: Direct payments if revenue falls below 90% of 3-year conventional baseline
Cost: $12 billion over 5 years (decreasing as farmers reach profitability by Year 3-4)

Tier 2: Regenerative Practice Grants

Equipment: 50% cost-share for no-till drills, cover crop seeders, roller-crimpers (up to $100k per farm)
Technical Assistance: $5,000/year for 3 years for agronomist consulting, soil testing, transition planning
Soil Carbon Monitoring: Free soil carbon baseline testing and annual verification through USDA partnership

Tier 3: Strategic Grain Reserves (Decentralized)

County-Level Storage: $8 billion for 500+ regional grain storage facilities (vs. current centralized system)
Capacity: 90-day supply of staple grains (wheat, corn, soybeans) in 50-mile radius of 90% of population
Rationale: When logistics collapse (COVID, fuel crises), local reserves prevent food shortages

LEGAL PRECEDENT:

Builds on existing Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) and Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) but restructures funding to prioritize transition risk reduction over piecemeal practice adoption.

NEW AUTHORITY: Classifies soil carbon sequestration as “Critical Infrastructure for Climate Adaptation” under existing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021), unlocking $8B in unallocated adaptation funding.

IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE:

Year 1 (2025): Legislative passage, USDA rule-making, farmer enrollment outreach
Year 2 (2026): 50,000 farms enrolled (15 million acres in transition)
Year 3 (2027): 150,000 farms enrolled (45 million acres), first cohort reaching profitability
Year 5 (2029): 400,000 farms enrolled (120 million acres), soil carbon market operational
Year 8 (2033): 1 million farms enrolled (300 million acres, 30% of US farmland)

KEY PROVISIONS:

Section 1: Transition Risk Insurance Program

Administered through existing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC)
Triggers: Yield drops >10% below 3-year conventional baseline during Years 1-3
Caps: Maximum $250,000/year per farm (sufficient for 95% of operations)
Verification: Annual soil health testing (organic matter %, aggregate stability, infiltration rate)
Graduation: Farms reaching profitability by Year 4 exit program, freeing funds for new entrants

Section 2: Input Independence Incentives

Bonus Payments: $50/acre/year for farms achieving 75%+ reduction in synthetic nitrogen (verified via receipts)
Biological Nitrogen Fixation: Prioritize legume cover crops and intercropping
Integrated Pest Management: 75% cost-share for beneficial insect habitat, mechanical weed control equipment

Section 3: Soil Carbon Market Development

USDA Verification Standard: Establishes federal protocol for soil carbon measurement (vs. current wild-west of competing standards)
Minimum Price Floor: Government purchases soil carbon credits at $20/ton CO2e if private market falls below (prevents market collapse discouraging adoption)
Additionality Requirement: Only credits for NEW regenerative practices (not rewarding existing practitioners)

Section 4: Cross-Sector Crisis Simulation

Mandate: Annual joint USDA-DHS-DOD exercise simulating 90-day disruption to fertilizer imports, fuel supply, or critical transportation corridors
Purpose: Identify vulnerabilities, test strategic reserve distribution, coordinate emergency food production protocols
Legal Basis: 2025 legislation already proposes this for food-related cyber emergencies

QUANTIFIED IMPACT PROJECTIONS:

Economic: $15-25 billion annual savings from eliminated fertilizer imports by 2033
Farmer Income: Average net income increase of $200-350/acre for mature regenerative systems (Tanzania model scaled)
Drought Resilience: 300M acres with improved water retention = 20,000 gallons/acre × 300M = 6 trillion gallons additional soil water storage capacity
National Security: Eliminates strategic vulnerability to hostile fertilizer suppliers (Russia, Belarus, China)
Climate: 300M acres sequestering 0.5-1.0 tons CO2e/acre/year = 150-300 million tons annual carbon drawdown (equivalent to taking 30-65M cars off the road)

BIPARTISAN FRAMING:

Conservative Appeal: Energy independence applied to food, reducing foreign dependency, supporting family farmers over corporate consolidation
Progressive Appeal: Climate mitigation, soil health, water quality, reducing chemical runoff, rural economic revitalization
Defense: Food security as national security, reducing single-source supply chain risks

WHY 2025 PASSAGE IS CRITICAL:

Regenerative transitions take 3-5 years to reach maturity. Starting in 2025 means 300M acres resilient by 2030-2033. Starting in 2027 means vulnerable to fertilizer price shocks until 2032-2035. Ukraine war showed fertilizer dependency is not hypothetical—it is a recurring strategic threat.

Sources: [1] U.S. Congress, “H.R.4873 - Food Supply Chain Capacity and Resiliency Act”, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/4873 [2] National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, “Agriculture Resilience Act”, https://sustainableagriculture.net/blog/agriculture-resilience-act-of-2021/ [3] U.S. Congress, “S.1016 - Agriculture Resilience Act of 2023”, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1016